Aisle be Back: All Blacks v South Africa 4.0

• By Kevin McCarthy

32-26. Not a score prediction for the fourth and final test of the thriller Boks v All Blacks.

Though New Zealand would happily take a win of that margin.

No, 32 is the average age of the Springbok starting XV, and 26 the same for the All Blacks during the series before Baltimore.

The difference of six years sometimes dips a little or blows out a little. But not by much.

As any of you watching will have gathered, this has been a story of a veteran champion outfit slowly controlling the last two tests and squeezing the life out of the All Blacks.

Age and experience still remain a gold standard in internationals, and by its nature, can only be built over time. 

Inexorably, the age ticks over, by my calculations, by one every calendar year. Experience doesn’t but typically goes hand in hand. Right now, it’s a winning formula that South Africa can reliably tip into its template of pressure, no frills rugby – built around set piece dominance.

No-one quite knows when age and experience become not a bonus but a burden. Clearly the All Blacks hoped that their relative youth and conditioning would outrun the veterans.

This has not worked. We can’t be sure if it will work next year at the World Cup.

I should really say that it has not worked, yet.

The first 15 minutes of the third test showed some phenomenal attacking play from the All Blacks. The Boks were chasing shadows and could easily have been 14-nil down. Youth at that stage was winning.

Instead, the Boks survived, and the All Blacks never hit that purple patch again, especially once Ardie Savea suffered that cruel injury. So, the All Blacks went into halftime 12-all. You know the rest.

I don’t think the philosophy of the new coaching team should change. Youth, speed, and innovation are the only viable route open for the World Cup. Four tests against South Africa will have already yielded huge hardening for players not used to this intensity.

I would not fret too much over this weekend’s team. Richie Mo’unga has the pedigree, now we will see if he can run this particular clipper again. Injuries dictate many of the other changes. 

Two-two would be good, and well-deserved as a series result. 

It’s not so much that Ian Foster or Scott Robertson would have done worse. It’s rather that people can now see there’s a conviction about how the All Blacks should play, and a much firmer resolution within the squad. 

Given the turnaround job asked of the new crew, I think they’ve done really well. There’ll be hiccups ahead, of course.

I saw one columnist trying to use the language of the Fozzie/Razor years, with Rennie now under pressure after two straight losses. 

Except people can see a path through this side, and they like it. Fans could never really say that about the last two coaches. 

It would be stupid to say, don’t worry, they’ve got this (this being the World Cup). 

But just on the down low, there’s a better than zero chance that they’ve got this.

+++++

Preston for four

Old Boys University halfback Kyle Preston is the only player to have featured in every game of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry. He has also only ever played South African teams as an All Black, with his first Test coming against the Springboks in 2025, followed by 4 games and 4 Tests (if he takes the field on Saturday) during this tour.

New Zealand has played six test matches in the United States previously. Three matches were against USA (1913, 2014, 2021) one against Fiji, in 2024, and two against Ireland, 2016 and 2025.

All Blacks match-day 23 (Test caps and non-Test games in brackets):

1. Ethan de Groot (44)
2. Codie Taylor (111) – Captain
3. Fletcher Newell (40)
4. Patrick Tuipulotu (58)
5. Sam Darry (11)
6. Tupou Vaa’i (50)
7. Ethan Blackadder (14)
8. Peter Lakai (13)
9. Cam Roigard (23)
10. Richie Mo’unga (56)
11. Josh Moorby (4)
12. Jordie Barrett (84)
13. Anton Lienert-Brown (93)
14. Will Jordan (60)
15. Damian McKenzie (80)
16. Asafo Aumua (25)
17. Xavier Numia (4)
18. Tyrel Lomax (54)
19. Josh Lord (16)
20. 20. Wallace Sititi (22)
21. 21. Kyle Preston (4)
22. Rieko Ioane (88)
23. Beauden Barrett (144)