Aisle be Back: Rotation

• By Kevin McCarthy

Do you remember when the land was stalked  by the dreaded R word? Rotation.

Suddenly the All Black jersey was irreparably damaged if the same starting XV did not get named game after game.

The only acceptable change came from injury, and even then, the player needed to show up with said amputated limb to get a break.

To actually have another player start in your particular jersey was widely seen as heresy and opening the door to a rival to take your spot. Uneasy lay the head that wore the fullback crown.

Today, you never really hear the word rotation – and if so, it is in approving fashion most times. Basically, another R word – reality – won the day. Given the heavier schedules and demands on player bodies. It didn’t make sense to keep putting out the same XV, or indeed 23.

Then we have next level – where really coaches pick a 23, with some overall strategies in place – like your bomb squad, or saving your fastest forwards for the last quarter when defences maybe tiring. And finally, in a four year cycle between world cups, rotation is how you blood and assess new talent.

As part of my intense research that backs up every blogpost, I asked Google AI to compare the changes test-to-test to game 23s over this season to date, for the All Blacks and Springboks. Any errors belong to Google and should be directed to your nearest friendly data centre – unless you live in Russia.

Across 8 tests the All Blacks 23 average 6.4 changes per matchday. The Boks average 8.4. In their face to face test series of four matches, both sides made 22 changes.

In starting XVs, the All Blacks made 3.9 changes on average, the Boks 5.9. In the four-tour faceoff,  the All Blacks made 13 changes in total, the Boks 15.

The data shows the Boks, outside the really big games, like to do some big wholesale changes – which is possibly how you lose matches to Australia in Perth. The All Blacks not so much – but then the South Africans are in a very different cycle of squad development to New Zealand.

For Bled 2 this weekend, no-one is therefore surprised by eight changes to the 23, and three to the starting XV.

As to the livestock, Hurricanes fans will be pleased to see Josh Moorby getting a starting crack once more, and Du Plessis Kirifi back in the fold, having endured the purgatory of Wellington’s NPC campaign.

The Wallabies will be better at home but won’t win. Watch for whether the All Blacks go for imitating the Boks box kicks again.

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Kudos to the weekend schedulers, tonight we have Northland v Otago in one semi, then the other on Sunday sees Canterbury versus Taranaki.

The meat in the sandwich is then on Saturday, where the Black Ferns start a three test homes series against France at 3 in the afternoon, before we segue nicely to a 6pm NZT kickoff for the Bledisloe. That’s right, another daytime test match!

Works for me.

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There are eight changes to the match-day 23 that played Australia at Eden Park last weekend, three of them in the starting side.

Petone’s Peter Lakai starts at openside flanker, while Ories prop Xavier Numia and Norths flanker Du ‘Plessis Kirifi is on the bench.

1. George Bower (30)
2. Codie Taylor (113) – Captain
3. Fletcher Newell (42)
4. Scott Barrett (90)
5. Fabian Holland (15)
6. Tupou Vaa’i (52)
7. Peter Lakai (15)
8. Wallace Sititi (24)
9. Cam Roigard (25)
10. Damian McKenzie (82)
11. Josh Moorby (6)
12. Jordie Barrett (86)
13. Quinn Tupaea (30)
14. Will Jordan (62)
15. Beauden Barrett (146)

16. Samisoni Taukei’aho (45)
17. Xavier Numia (5)
18. Pasilio Tosi (18)
19. Shannon Frizell (34)
20. Du’Plessis Kirifi (8)
21. Cortez Ratima (24)
22. Timoci Tavatavanawai (2)
23. Rieko Ioane (90)

Unavailable due to injury: Leroy Carter (ankle); Anton Segner (concussion); Asafo Aumua (concussion); Ethan Blackadder (calf); Richie Mo’unga (calf); Fehi Fineanganofo (hamstring).

• When the All Blacks retained the Bledisloe Cup at Eden Park last weekend, it was the 54th time New Zealand has won the trophy and the 24th consecutive year it has held it.
• The All Blacks and Australia have met 182 times, with New Zealand winning 129, Australia 45 and eight drawn.
• The sides last met at Accor Stadium on 21 September 2024, with the All Blacks winning 31-28.

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