Aisle be Back: Hurricanes v Chiefs

When the Hurricanes met the Chiefs in 2024. 

• By Kevin McCarthy

An old joke but still a good one – and usually fit for explaining a lot of things.

Two blokes are hiking across the savannah when a cheetah spots them from afar and starts chasing them. Bloke One kicks off his boots and pulls on a pair of running shoes. Bloke Two yells at him that’s pointless, they can’t outrun a cheetah.

Bloke One replies I don’t need to outrun the cheetah; I just need to outrun you.

As the Hurricanes face their absolute must-win match tomorrow at home against the Chiefs, I wouldn’t put great hopes on them prevailing.

That’s just being realistic. Even with no DMAC, they are generally shredding teams, and generally have had the wood on the Canes, home or away, for several seasons. Last year’s semi was another case of that – and that was a better Hurricanes team than this season.

But do not fear – we can still make the top six i.e. outrun the Cheetah. Currently at fifth, the Hurricanes have to outrun, in this order, the Force, Waratahs, Moana Pasifika, Blues, Highlanders, and the Drua.

As a lover of dodgy statistical analysis, I’ve tried to work out in simple fashion the degree of difficulty of the run home for the various teams.  The formula is to add up the current table ranking of the opponent and divide by games remaining to play. The lower the score, the tougher the remaining games.  No weighting is given for playing home and away.

On that basis, the Hurricanes need to care about the Force, Waratahs, Moana, Blues, Highlanders and Drua.

Of that cohort, the team with the easiest run-in by quite a margin is the Blues.  So, they can still come storming into the top 6.

The Force have the next best run-in, then Moana Pasifika (and yes all bets are off  depending on whether Ardie plays or not!).

The Hurricanes and Drua both face an equally tough run home, although only one of those games is away for the Fijians.

The Waratahs face a tougher sprint home but are the only team in the bunch with an extra game up their sleeve.

And the Highlanders face the worst run-in. Their chances are now on a very uninviting knife edge.

The Hurricanes of course will go straight into a bye. Meaning the picture will look different again – but probably not in a good way.

So, pay attention to the Waratahs, in 7^th, and with five games left,  and just one point shy. Needless to say, the same applies to the Force – and look out for Blues thundering down the inside. Or Moana Pasifika – in a fan favourites finish.

Could the Canes nip into fourth with a stellar final four games? Hell yes, but no. Because that would require the Reds and Brumbies to implode. The Reds however have a game in hand, and a run-in as easy as the Blues. The Brumbies are two points higher, and three of the last four matches are at Fortress Canberra.

Which kind of means the Hurricanes need to run, run, run. This is going to be fun.

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Brayden Iose will bring up his 50th cap for the Hurricanes, making him the 67th Hurricane to reach that milestone. Iose made his Super Rugby debut (off the bench) against the Chiefs in 2021. Naholo and Punivai are back on the wings and the midfield combo of Proctor and Higgins return to the starting lineup after a successful outing against the Brumbies and powerhouse props Xavier Numia and Pasilio Tosi will look to impact off the bench.

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The Hurricanes team to play the Chiefs on Saturday night is:

1. Tevita Mafileo
2. Asafo Aumua
3. Tyrel Lomax
4. Caleb Delany
5. Isaia Walker-Leawere
6. Brayden Iose (50th Cap)
7. Du’Plessis Kirifi (Co Captain)
8. Peter Lakai
9. Cam Roigard
10. Ruben Love
11. Kini Naholo
12. Riley Higgins
13. Billy Proctor (Co Captain)
14. Ngatungane Punivai
15. Callum Harkin
16. Raymond Tuputupu
17. Xavier Numia
18. Pasilio Tosi
19. Zach Gallagher
20. Brad Shields (Co Captain)
21. Ereatara Enari
22. Riley Hohepa
23. Bailyn Sullivan

UNAVAILABLE DUE TO INJURY