
- By Kevin McArthy
Do not fret unduly, fan, about this weekend’s mouth-watering clash of the century. The Blues, at Eden Park.
A win of course will be graciously accepted, and would likely, be enough – all things being equal – to nail down home advantage all the way.
A loss will on the other hand open the Hurricanes to, well second spot, and letting the pursuing pack close. Of which the Brumbies would fancy their chances.
On the premise that whoever wins at Eden Park will do so by a close i.e., seven or less margin (earning the loser a bonus point), then a Canes win will open a five point margin, a Canes loss will leave them trailing by three.
The latter scenario means the battle for the top won’t be decided and could be switched around should the Blues drop one of their remaining matches.
Of the respective run-ins after this weekend, the Blues have a little bit harder schedule – playing away against the no-doubt desperate Crusaders, and then at homes to the Chiefs in their closing game.
The Canes by contrast have one difficult match in prospect – that away, against the Chiefs.
As for Saturday, who really knows how this is going to shape up. Both teams are topping the table for a reason, but they’re not exact clones.
Looking at the stats, there’s no glaring gulf – a slightly better disciplinary record for the Canes, handier in the offloads, weaker in run metres.
The one big outlier to that is that the Blues boast the best defence, by some margin, in the comp.
And since defence always becomes more evident and more critical as the season end approaches, you’d have to suspect it will be the decisive factor this weekend.
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A slew of new and trial laws are out today from World Rugby.
You can pick them apart elsewhere – most are already familiar from being trialled in this part of the world.
But I note that while they are intended to be making the game more entertaining and fan friendly, the issue most exercising most fans in the last year – the blessed intervention by TMOs and interminable replays – was not, seemingly, on the agenda.
Perhaps it’s better handled as a separate issue, or just ignored.
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“Here comes the cavalry” was the headline this week in our local newspaper on the psychodrama of the Crusaders.
It’s a tribute to them that their tribulations and battles to win eighth place are attracting as much publicity as, well, the Warriors in a standard NRL season.
Is it the cavalry coming (Codie Taylor and Tamaiti Williams) or is it too late? I mean, a normal season would regard a trip to Dunedin as a formality, no matter how much the Highlanders might put up some resistance. But the words normal do not apply in 2024 for Crusaders.
One fears looking for the cavalry may be like Major Reno on his bluff at the Little Big Horn, wondering if Custer was going to rescue him.
Let’s just throw a little teaser in. Perhaps the fate of the Crusaders will ultimately rest with whether in the very last round, the Highlanders could come to Wellington and tip over the Hurricanes.
Wouldn’t that be fun.
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Changes to the side see Xavier Numia, Caleb Delany, Brad Shields, TJ Perenara, Kini Naholo, Jordie Barrett come back into the run-on fifteen. Kianu Kereru-Symes retains his starting spot at hooker, backed up by Raymond Tuputupu on the bench.
Perenara, who’s 63rd try, took him to the top of the all-time list in Super Rugby, returns to the nine jersey for his 159th Hurricanes appearance.
Upfront, the scrum, which has been performing well under the tutelage of Jamie Mackintosh will look to build off last week’s foundations against a very strong Blues forward pack.
The Hurricanes lead the try scoring charts, on 53 tries for the season – with the Blues and Chiefs, tied in second on 52 tries apiece.
Hurricanes team to face the Blues at 4:35pm at Eden Park.
- Xavier Numia
2. Kianu Kereru-Symes
3. Tyrel Lomax
4. Caleb Delany
5. Isaia Walker-Leawere
6. Brad Shields (C)
7. Peter Lakai
8. Brayden Iose
9. TJ Perenara
10. Brett Cameron
11. Kini Naholo
12. Jordie Barrett
13. Billy Proctor
14. Josh Moorby
15. Ruben Love
16. Raymond Tuputupu
17. Pouri Rakete-Stones
18. Pasilio Tosi
19. Justin Sangster
20. Devan Flanders
21. Du’Plessis Kirifi
22. Richard Judd
23. Bailyn Sullivan